Canada Housing Market

Canada’s population continues to decline after a period of record-breaking growth, according to new data from Statistics Canada.

The latest population estimates show Canada’s population fell by approximately 55,000 people in the first quarter of 2026, marking the third consecutive quarterly decline. While the country’s population remains above 41 million people, it has now fallen by more than 230,000 people since reaching a record high in 2025.

The decline comes as the federal government works to slow population growth by reducing the number of temporary residents in Canada.

Canada’s Population Continues To Decline

Statistics Canada estimates Canada’s population stood at approximately 41.4 million people in Q1 2026.

The latest figures show:

• Population declined by 55,000 people in Q1 2026
• Population is down approximately 187,500 people compared to one year earlier
• Population has fallen by roughly 234,600 people since its peak in Q3 2025

The latest estimate places Canada’s population at its lowest level since late 2024.

Despite the recent declines, the pullback follows one of the fastest periods of population growth in Canadian history. Between 2022 and 2024, Canada experienced record population gains driven largely by immigration and temporary resident growth.

Temporary Residents Account For Most Of The Decline

The vast majority of the recent population decline has been driven by falling numbers of non-permanent residents.

Statistics Canada estimates Canada’s non-permanent resident population fell to approximately 2.56 million people in Q1 2026, representing:

• A decline of 117,900 people from the previous quarter
• A decline of 524,400 people compared to one year earlier
• A decline of 590,600 people from the record high

The latest figures mark the sixth consecutive quarterly decline for non-permanent residents.

Non-permanent residents include international students, temporary foreign workers, and individuals holding temporary visas.

Temporary Resident Population Remains Historically Elevated

While the decline has been significant, the non-permanent resident population remains well above pre-pandemic levels.

Between late 2021 and its peak in 2024, Canada’s non-permanent resident population more than doubled, rising by over 118%.

As a result, recent declines have only partially reversed the unprecedented growth seen over the past several years.

Canada Still Faces Challenges Meeting Its Temporary Resident Target

The federal government has stated it intends to reduce the non-permanent resident population to approximately 5% of Canada’s total population.

According to the latest estimates, non-permanent residents currently account for roughly 6.1% of Canada’s population.

Reaching the federal target would require a further reduction in temporary resident numbers, stronger growth among permanent residents and citizens, or a combination of both.

The non-partisan Parliamentary Budget Officer has previously indicated the government’s target is achievable, although it will depend on future immigration levels, population growth, and the pace of temporary resident departures.

Population Growth Is Slowing, Not Reversing Entirely

While recent headlines have focused on Canada’s shrinking population, the broader context remains important.

Canada added millions of residents during the population surge that occurred between 2022 and 2024. Although population growth has now reversed direction, the recent declines represent only a fraction of the gains recorded during that period.

The latest data suggests Canada’s population growth strategy is shifting from rapid expansion toward moderation as policymakers attempt to balance housing, infrastructure, and labour market pressures.

References

Statistics Canada. (2026, June 18). Canada’s population estimates, first quarter 2026. Government of Canada. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260618/dq260618c-eng.htm

Better Dwelling. (2026, June 17). Canada’s population drops 230k, temporary resident target slips. Better Dwelling. https://betterdwelling.com

Parliamentary Budget Officer. (2025). Economic and fiscal outlook related to population growth and temporary residents. Government of Canada. https://www.pbo-dpb.ca