Toronto homeowners are showing increased signs of mortgage stress as Canada continues working through one of the biggest mortgage renewal cycles in years.
According to CMHC’s Spring 2026 Residential Mortgage Industry Report, the national 90-plus day mortgage delinquency rate increased to 0.24% in Q4 2025, up from 0.21% one year earlier. CMHC said the increase was driven mainly by Ontario and especially the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area, where mortgage delinquencies rose 45% year-over-year.
Mortgage Delinquencies Are Rising in Toronto
CMHC says the national mortgage delinquency rate remains low by historical standards, but the increase is still worth watching.
The rise was especially concentrated in Ontario and Toronto.
According to CMHC:
- National 90-plus day mortgage delinquency rate: 0.24%
- Previous year: 0.21%
- Ontario delinquencies: up 35% year-over-year
- Toronto CMA delinquencies: up 45% year-over-year
This suggests financial pressure is not evenly spread across the country. It is showing up more clearly in higher-cost markets where households tend to carry larger mortgages.
The Mortgage Renewal Wave Has Peaked
CMHC says Canada’s mortgage renewal wave peaked in 2025, but it still continues to dominate the mortgage market.
Many homeowners who took out mortgages during the low-rate period have been renewing into much higher rates. That means monthly payments have increased for many borrowers, especially those with larger mortgages or less financial flexibility.
Even though the peak may have passed, the impact is still being felt through 2026 and could remain a key housing story into 2027.
Why Toronto Is Under More Pressure
Toronto is one of Canada’s most expensive housing markets, which means homeowners often carry larger mortgage balances.
When interest rates rise or mortgages renew at higher rates, payment increases can be much harder to absorb.
Toronto borrowers may be more exposed because of:
- Higher home prices
- Larger mortgage balances
- Higher carrying costs
- Condo-market weakness
- Elevated cost of living
- Slower resale activity in some segments
This does not mean Toronto is facing a mortgage crisis, but it does mean more households are showing signs of stress.
Delinquencies Are Still Low Overall
CMHC makes an important distinction: delinquency rates are rising, but they remain low by recent and historical standards.
In a CMHC discussion about the report, Deputy Chief Economist Aled Ab Iorwerth said delinquency rates are increasing, particularly in Toronto and Vancouver, but are still within normal bounds compared to pre-pandemic levels.
That means the issue is not necessarily the absolute level of delinquencies. The concern is the pace of increase in certain high-cost markets.
Non-Mortgage Arrears Are Also Rising
CMHC also noted that non-mortgage arrears have increased, though the pace of growth has slowed.
This matters because missed payments on credit cards, car loans, or other debts can sometimes show financial strain before mortgage problems become more serious.
For many households, the mortgage is the payment they try hardest to protect. So if other debt payments are becoming harder to manage, it can be an early warning sign.
What This Means for Homeowners
For homeowners renewing in 2026 or 2027, the biggest issue is payment shock.
A borrower who secured a low mortgage rate several years ago may now face a much higher monthly payment at renewal.
That can force households to:
- Cut discretionary spending
- Extend amortizations where possible
- Switch lenders or products
- Rework household budgets
- Delay moving or upgrading homes
For some households, the adjustment is manageable. For others, especially in expensive markets, the pressure is becoming more visible.
What This Means for Buyers
For buyers, rising delinquencies may signal a more cautious market.
Higher mortgage stress can reduce buyer confidence, slow sales activity, and make lenders more careful with approvals.
However, it does not automatically mean a flood of distressed listings is coming.
CMHC’s data suggests the mortgage system remains relatively stable, but certain markets, including Toronto, require closer monitoring.
What This Signals for Canada’s Housing Market
CMHC’s report reinforces one of the biggest housing themes of 2026.
The renewal wave may have peaked, but mortgage stress is still working its way through the system.
For Canada’s housing market, this suggests:
- Renewal pressure remains a key risk
- Delinquencies are rising but still low overall
- High-cost markets are under more strain
- Household debt remains a major vulnerability
- The full impact of higher rates may take time to show up
This is not a panic story, but it is a warning sign.
What This Signals for Ontario
Ontario is at the centre of the mortgage stress story.
With delinquencies up 35% year-over-year across the province and 45% in Toronto, the data shows that higher-cost Ontario markets are feeling the impact of mortgage renewals more than many other regions.
For Ontario’s housing market, this could keep buyers cautious, sellers realistic, and lenders focused on borrower risk through the rest of 2026.
References
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. (2026, May 12). Renewal wave peaks but still dominates mortgage market.
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2026/renewal-wave-peaks-still-dominates-mortgage-market
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. (2026). Residential Mortgage Industry Report – Spring 2026 Edition.
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/research-reports/housing-finance/residential-mortgage-industry-report
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. (2026, May 12). Spring 2026 Residential Mortgage Industry Update: Renewals and Risk.
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/observer/2026/spring-2026-residential-mortgage-industry-update-renewals-and-risk
Yahoo Finance. (2026, May 12). Renewal wave peaks but still dominates mortgage market.
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/renewal-wave-peaks-still-dominates-140000914.html
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