Ontario’s cottage country housing market could see another price increase this year, as limited inventory continues to support values despite broader economic uncertainty.
A new report from Royal LePage forecasts that demand for recreational properties will remain strong across Canada in 2026, with prices expected to climb modestly.
Cottage Prices Expected to Increase Again in 2026
According to the report, the median price of a single-family cottage or recreational property in Canada is projected to rise 4% in 2026, reaching approximately $604,552.
This follows a 4.3% increase in 2025, showing continued resilience in the recreational housing segment even as other parts of the housing market face slower growth.
Ontario Cottage Market Forecast Remains Stable
In Ontario, price growth is expected to be more moderate.
The median cottage price in the province is forecast to increase by 2% in 2026, reaching approximately $643,722.
While this represents slower growth compared to the national average, it still signals ongoing demand in key cottage regions.
Limited Supply Continues to Drive Prices
One of the main factors supporting cottage prices is a persistent lack of inventory.
New developments in popular cottage regions remain relatively rare, and many properties are held within families for generations. This creates a constrained supply environment that helps stabilize prices, even during periods of economic uncertainty.
Luxury Buyers Driving Activity in Key Regions
In high-demand areas like Muskoka, market activity is being driven largely by higher-income buyers purchasing properties for personal use rather than investment.
Demand levels remain similar to last year, although homes are taking slightly longer to sell compared to peak pandemic conditions.
Canadians Shifting Toward Domestic Vacation Properties
Changing travel preferences are also influencing the cottage market.
More Canadians are choosing to invest in domestic recreational properties rather than owning vacation homes abroad.
Royal LePage reports that 54% of Canadians who own property in the United States are planning to sell, with many expected to reinvest those funds into Canadian real estate, including cottages.
What This Signals for Buyers and Investors
While price growth is expected to be modest in Ontario, ongoing supply constraints and shifting buyer preferences could continue to support the cottage market in 2026.
For buyers, this suggests that waiting for significant price declines in cottage country may be unlikely in the near term. For sellers, stable demand and limited inventory may continue to provide favourable conditions.
References
Royal LePage. (2026). Recreational Property Report 2026 Forecast. Retrieved from https://www.royallepage.ca
Toronto Life https://torontolife.com/real-estate/cottage-country-vacation-homes-2026-price-jump-muskoka-value-royal-lepage/
Canada Housing Market 
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