As Canada’s housing market approaches the traditional spring buying season, buyers and sellers alike are asking one key question: Will home prices rise or fall in Spring 2026? Early market data and multiple independent forecasts suggest that 2026 will be a year of modest growth and stabilization, with home prices likely to rise slightly, although with important regional differences and ongoing economic uncertainty.
📊 National Price Forecasts for 2026
According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the national average home price is projected to increase by around 2.8 percent in 2026, rising to an estimated ~$698,880 by year-end. That marks a slowdown from the stronger gains seen in 2024 and 2025, but still points toward positive, moderate price growth overall.
CREA’s data also indicate that price gains will vary by region:
- Smaller increases in British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, and Nova Scotia.
- Larger gains in markets like Saskatchewan and Quebec.
This means that while prices overall may trend higher in 2026, the pace and direction can differ greatly depending on location.
📈 Spring 2026: What Seasonal Trends Tell Us
Historically, the spring market in Canada tends to be stronger than winter, as weather improves and buyers re-enter the market. CREA has noted that January home sales dipped, likely influenced by severe winter weather in parts of Central Canada, but also highlighted that pent-up demand from first-time buyers could fuel activity as spring arrives.
Economists and housing outlooks also point to gradual, modest recovery conditions in 2026. For example, TD Economics forecasts a moderate housing rebound supported by pent-up demand and stable interest rates, even as affordability constraints and economic uncertainty temper rapid growth.
🧠 Expert Forecasts Vary – But Most See Mild Growth
Different forecasting groups offer a range of expectations for 2026’s pricing trends:
🟢 CREA – Modest Price Gains
CREA projects national price gains of about 2.8 percent in 2026, notably slower than pre-pandemic levels but still positive.
🟡 Royal LePage – Slight Growth with Regional Differences
Royal LePage’s forecast sees the aggregate home price rising modestly (+1.0 percent) by year-end, with higher gains in some regions (e.g., Quebec City +12 percent) and declines in others (e.g., Toronto -4.5 percent, Vancouver -3.5 percent).
🔵 RBC Economics – Mixed Outlook
An RBC forecast suggests slightly weaker pricing conditions in some markets early in 2026, with demand gradually rebuilding later in the year as buyer confidence increases.
🟠 Re/Max – Balanced Expectations
Re/Max’s outlook describes Canada’s housing market entering 2026 with measured stability, where price growth is generally flat or modest, depending on local conditions.
🌍 Regional Differences Will Matter
National averages can mask important local variation:
- Ontario and B.C.: Expected to see slower or flat price growth due to affordability barriers and higher inventory levels in expensive hubs.
- Prairies and Quebec: Some forecasts indicate stronger performance, with cities like Regina and Quebec City driving above-average gains.
- Atlantic Canada: Conditions remain balanced, with modest activity and regional pricing increases.
This suggests that any spring price gains in Canada will not be uniform — some local markets will outpace others depending on jobs, supply, and buyer confidence.
📉 Broader Market Indicators to Watch
A few real-time data points and trends support a nuanced spring forecast:
- Housing starts have fallen sharply, with January 2026 starts down about 15 percent, indicating that new supply is slowing and may constrain future inventory.
- CREA reported home sales down in January 2026, but analysts attributed much of that to a historic winter storm rather than fundamental weakness.
- Ongoing national and international economic uncertainty — including trade policy — could temper buyer confidence as spring unfolds.
These factors suggest mixed signals for short-term pricing, even if longer-term fundamentals point to gradual stability or growth.
🏡 What This Means for Buyers and Sellers in Spring 2026
For Buyers:
- Affordability may improve slightly as price growth cools.
- Lower competition early in the year could give buyers more negotiating power.
- Regional variation means deals may be easier to find outside major metros.
For Sellers:
- Balanced markets may limit dramatic price jumps.
- Spring seasonality could still boost activity relative to winter.
- Staging, pricing accuracy, and listing timing are key in a slower-growth year.
📌 Bottom Line
Overall, most forecasts suggest Canadian home prices will rise modestly in 2026, with growth concentrated in some regions more than others. Spring 2026 is likely to see a gradual upswing in activity compared to winter, but dramatic price increases are unlikely. Buyers and sellers should plan with regional conditions and affordability trends in mind.
References
Canadian Real Estate Association. (2026). Canadian housing market forecasts and quarterly data. https://www.crea.ca/housing-market-stats/canadian-housing-market-stats/quarterly-forecasts/
Canadian Real Estate Association. (2026, February). Home sales and price activity begin 2026 with winter slowdown. https://www.crea.ca/media-hub/news/home-sales-in-canada-end-2025-quietly-2/
Royal LePage. (2025, December 9). 2026 housing market forecast. https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/canada-s-housing-market-poised-for-a-reset-in-2026-with-modest-price-growth-and-increased-activity-831278682.html
TD Economics. (2026, January 19). Provincial housing market outlook: 2026 modest recovery expected. https://economics.td.com/ca-provincial-housing-outlook
Royal Bank of Canada. (n.d.). Canadian housing market forecast update. https://www.rbc.com/en/economics/canadian-analysis/canadian-housing/special-housing-reports/canadas-housing-market-forecast-update/
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. (2026). Housing market outlook 2026. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-market-outlook
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