February 8, 2026
Investment in Canadian commercial real estate is expected to rebound in 2026, according to a new outlook from CBRE, which projects property investment volume could climb to approximately $56 billion this year.
That would represent an increase of more than 8 percent compared with 2025, signaling renewed confidence across several major commercial property sectors.
CBRE’s forecast includes merger activity, portfolio transactions, and direct commercial property sales, suggesting that investor appetite is strengthening after a slower period in recent years.
Investment Activity Expected to Rebound
CBRE estimates total commercial real estate investment reached roughly $47 billion in 2025, a year marked by cautious capital deployment and elevated borrowing costs.
The projected jump to $56 billion in 2026 reflects improving financing conditions, stabilizing asset pricing, and growing institutional interest in Canadian markets.
According to the report, investors are gradually returning as pricing clarity improves and market fundamentals strengthen.
Office Market Shows Signs of Stabilization
The office sector, which faced significant disruption following remote work shifts, is showing early signs of recovery.
CBRE reports that:
- Office markets have recorded two consecutive years of positive net absorption
- The national office vacancy rate appears to have peaked
- Demand is gradually stabilizing in major urban centres
While challenges remain, the outlook suggests the sector is transitioning toward a period of more consistent growth.
Industrial Market Near a Potential Turning Point
Canada’s industrial real estate sector remains broadly balanced after years of strong expansion. However, CBRE notes that 2026 could represent an inflection point.
A scheduled review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) this summer introduces uncertainty for trade-dependent sectors.
The report emphasizes that preserving trade stability is critical, as Canada’s industrial resilience has been supported in part by tariff carveouts tied to the agreement.
Retail Sector Showing Renewed Stability
Retail commercial real estate is also entering a more stable phase compared with last year.
CBRE highlights that:
- Major retail brands are expanding
- New markets are being explored
- Leasing activity is improving
This suggests continued confidence in physical retail locations, particularly in growing suburban and secondary markets.
What This Signals for Investors
The projected rebound in commercial real estate investment points to improving market sentiment after a period of higher interest rates and slower transaction activity.
Key themes include:
- Greater pricing clarity encouraging deal flow
- Stabilizing fundamentals in office and retail
- Continued resilience in industrial assets
- Renewed institutional interest in Canadian markets
While risks remain tied to global trade and financing conditions, the outlook indicates a more active investment environment in 2026.
What This Signals for Canada’s Property Market
Commercial real estate activity often serves as a broader indicator of economic confidence.
A rise in investment volume suggests:
- Increased capital deployment
- Stronger leasing confidence
- Market stabilization following rate-driven slowdowns
If projections hold, 2026 could mark a transition toward more normalized investment cycles across multiple sectors.
The Bottom Line
CBRE’s outlook suggests Canadian commercial real estate is entering a recovery phase, with investment volumes expected to climb meaningfully this year.
Office stabilization, balanced industrial fundamentals, and improving retail confidence are contributing to renewed investor activity.
While economic and trade factors remain watchpoints, the forecast points to a more active commercial property landscape in 2026.
References (APA – OHM Standard)
CBRE. (2026). Canada real estate market outlook 2026. CBRE Research.
The Canadian Press. (2026, February 6). CBRE sees commercial real estate investment rising to $56B this year
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