A new report from the Fraser Institute paints a stark picture of homeownership in Ontario. To buy a typical home in Toronto, a family earning the median after-tax income would need to spend 110.2% of that income on monthly mortgage payments, even after making a 20% down payment.
In simple terms, the average family in Toronto could not afford the average mortgage using their income alone.
Back in 2014, the share of income needed in Toronto was about 56%, meaning the pressure on households has effectively doubled in less than a decade.
The report notes that this is largely because home prices have surged while wages have barely moved, deepening the gap between what people earn and what homes cost.
No Major Ontario City Meets The “One-Third Of Income” Rule
The Fraser Institute examined 14 of Ontario’s largest urban centres. In every single one, a family earning the local median after-tax income would need to spend more than 50% of that income on mortgage payments for a typical home.
Highlights from the report include the share of median after-tax family income needed to carry an average mortgage (with 20% down):
- Toronto: 110.2%
- Oshawa: 92.2%
- Hamilton: 76.9%
- Barrie: 74.7%
- Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo: 73.9%
- Brantford: 70.1%
- Guelph: 69.8%
- St. Catharines–Niagara: 67.9%
- Peterborough: 67.8%
- Windsor: 63.2%
- London: 61.8%
- Belleville–Quinte West: 58.4%
- Kingston: 51.2%
- Ottawa–Gatineau: 50.4%
Housing is often considered “affordable” when housing costs are around 30% of household income. According to this report, no major Ontario city comes close to that threshold.
It’s Not Just A GTA Problem
One of the key messages from the authors is that housing stress is not simply a “Toronto issue.”
Cities that are often seen as more affordable alternatives – including Windsor, London, Belleville, and Kingston – still require a median-income family to spend more than half of their after-tax earnings on mortgage payments for a typical home.
The findings push back against the idea that moving outside the Greater Toronto Area automatically solves the affordability problem.
Saving For A Down Payment Takes Much Longer Than Before
The study also tracks how long it takes to save up a 20% down payment on a typical home.
- In 2014, a 20% down payment required about 14.1 months of median after-tax family income.
- By 2023, that number had jumped to 22 months, an increase of more than 50%.
This means buyers are not only facing higher monthly mortgage payments, but also longer saving timelines just to get into the market.
What This Means For Buyers And Policymakers
The Fraser Institute’s report underlines three important points:
- For most major Ontario cities, a median income is no longer enough to comfortably carry the mortgage on a typical home.
- Toronto is in the worst shape, but the overall pattern – high payments relative to income – shows up across the province.
- The authors argue that any serious solution to the housing crisis needs to address both home prices and incomes, suggesting that boosting wages and incomes should be part of the conversation, not just building more homes.
For many Ontario families, the message is clear: owning a home at average price levels now often requires above-median income, a large down payment, or family wealth.
Important Disclaimer
These figures are based on average home prices, modelled mortgage payments, median after-tax family incomes, and a 20% down payment as used in the Fraser Institute study.
They provide a general picture, not personalized financial advice.
The actual amount you might qualify for will depend on your income, debts, down payment, interest rate, amortization, credit score, and lender requirements.
Reference
Thompson, A., Globerman, S., & Emes, J. (2025). Home ownership and rent affordability in Canadian CMAs, 2014–2023. Fraser Institute. Homeownership and Rent Affordability in Canadian CMAs, 2014–2023
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