The Canadian housing market showed signs of cooling in September 2025, as home sales declined 1.7% month-over-month, according to new data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
The drop ends a streak of steady monthly increases that began in April. Despite this pullback, activity remains strong compared to previous years, with sales running at their highest September level since 2021.
📉 Regional Breakdown
Sales declines in Greater Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa, and Montreal outweighed modest gains in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Winnipeg, CREA reported.
- Down: Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa, Montreal
- Up: Toronto, Winnipeg
On a year-over-year basis (without seasonal adjustment), national home sales were up 5.2%.
💬 Expert Insight
“While the trend of rising sales that began earlier this year took a breather in September, activity was still running at the highest level for that month since 2021,”
said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist.
He added that three years of pent-up demand and more normalized interest rates could push sales higher through late 2025 and into 2026.
💰 Interest Rates & Pricing Trends
- The Bank of Canada recently lowered its benchmark interest rate to 2.5%, the lowest in three years.
- CREA’s Home Price Index (HPI) slipped 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year (unadjusted).
These figures suggest that while prices continue to soften, lower borrowing costs may help stabilize the market heading into winter.
📊 CREA Forecasts
According to CREA’s updated housing forecast:
- Sales: Projected to fall 1.1% in 2025 compared to 2024
- Rebound: Expected 7.7% growth in 2026
- Average Price: Predicted to decline 1.4% in 2025, then rise 3.2% in 2026
🏠 Market Outlook
While September’s dip signals a temporary slowdown, experts remain optimistic about recovery. Improved affordability and lower interest rates are expected to fuel a gradual rebound in sales across most regions.
The market appears to be stabilizing after years of volatility, moving toward a more balanced pace of growth.
Source: Reuters – Canadian Home Sales Decline 1.7% in September 2025
For more market updates and regional price trends, visit ontariohousingmarket.com
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